Is Dallas Heading Toward a Buyer’s Market?

By Seychelle Van Poole

Seychelle is a specialist in meeting the needs of sellers and buyers, and serves as the Team Director for Van Poole Properties Group. Being named Top 30 Under 30 by the National Association of Realtors for 2011, Seychelle is an expert negotiator, marketing and sales analyst, and is dedicated to making the buying and selling process stress-free and enjoyable.

Home prices are still going up across the country, but buyers here in Dallas suddenly have more room to negotiate than they’ve had in years. Normally those two things don’t happen together, so it’s left a lot of people scratching their heads, wondering whether to jump in or hold off. Are we heading into a buyer’s market, or not? The honest answer isn’t quite what most people expect, and it’s more useful than a simple yes or no.

Nationally, not yet, but we’re close. Nationwide, we’re not in a buyer’s market. We’re somewhere in the middle, pretty balanced, and that’s a real change from the last few years, when sellers held all the cards. It’s just not the same as buyers taking over.

Nationally, prices increased 1.3% from one year ago, not the huge jumps we all got used to. Homes are sitting a little longer, and buyers can breathe again. Things are drifting toward the middle, and in some spots, toward buyers. If you’re holding out for prices to crash so you can grab a steal, though, the numbers aren’t showing that.

There’s one number that tells you which way a market leans. If you take away just one thing, make it this. It’s easy to understand once you know it: if nobody listed another home, how long would it take to sell everything that’s for sale right now? A few months, or a lot?

Here’s how to read it. Under four months, sellers have the edge. Four to six months, it’s pretty even. More than six months, buyers are in charge. The latest national report shows unsold inventory represented a 4.8-month supply in September, which is exactly why the country as a whole is balanced, not a buyer’s market yet.

Where Dallas stands right now. The latest Texas A&M housing report for our area shows months’ inventory for single-unit residential housing declined from 4.6 to 4.5 in September, so by that one number, Dallas-Fort Worth as a whole is balanced too. Look a little closer, though, and several of our local markers have already crossed the line.

That same report shows months’ inventory for condominiums rose from 7.9 to 9.0 months, firmly a buyer’s market, and townhomes are sitting right on the edge at 5.8 months. Homes across Dallas-Fort Worth are closing at about 94% of their original list price, so sellers are giving up real money at the negotiating table. On the price side, Dallas continued to see mild price softening, with annual declines nearing 1%, while prices in the rest of the country are still inching up.

National averages miss your street. Your town, your price range, even your zip code can be leaning a completely different way. A condo and a single-family home a few blocks apart can be living in two completely different markets right now, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing across Dallas. Even the group that puts out the national data makes the same point: behind the calm national numbers, there are big differences from one local area to the next. That’s the whole ballgame.

Here’s what it means for you. It comes down to which side you’re on. If you’re buying in Dallas, this works in your favor. You’ve got more breathing room than you’ve had in years, more time to think, and real room to ask for a better price, repairs, or terms. You don’t have to throw out every condition and pile on tens of thousands over asking just to have a shot anymore.

If you’re selling, here’s the honest reality, and it’s the part that actually protects you. The days of naming any price and getting it are done. Your home will still sell, and sell well, but only if you price it for the market you’re actually in, not for what your neighbor got two years ago.

Either way, the answer was never in a national headline. It’s in your local numbers, and those are exactly what we keep an eye on for the people we work with.

If you’re trying to figure out whether now’s the right time to buy or sell in Dallas, don’t base it on a national headline that has nothing to do with your neighborhood. Let’s sit down, look at your actual local numbers together, and figure out what they mean for you. Call or text (214) 267-9222, email Seychellesells@vanpoole.com, or visit dallasarealiving.com. Let’s make this decision with real information, not guesswork.